Happy New Year 2000: It's Midnight--
Do You Know Where Your Community Is?
Talk about a hangover . . .
Imagine it's the Monday after New Year's Day 2000. You awake to a cold, dark house. The tapwater trickles and stops. The phone circuits are busy, and the cellphone is erratic. The battery radio reports that rail and air traffic has been disrupted worldwide, global stock markets are plummeting, and the National Guard has been called out in several states.
Your car doesn't start (although others do), so you walk to town through unplowed streets. Traffic is backed up at dead stoplights, and long lines have formed at the few gas pumps that have hand cranks. Downtown there is power from backup generators only. ATMs are dead. Crowds jam bank tellers to withdraw their cash, and the grocery store won't accept your credit card. Hoarders have emptied the shelves, and food shipments have been suspended. Sirens wail as an angry mob gathers at town hall, demanding action…
This is what some knowledgeable people fear may happen as a result of the so-called Year 2000 Bug, or simply Y2K in geek-speak (see side bar).
It is, to be sure, the darkest of a range of possible outcomes, and expert opinion on its likelihood differs widely. But the story illustrates the challenge Y2K could pose to the interdependent systems woven into modern society's infrastructure if remedial efforts fall short.
Y2K affects almost everyone, from individuals to companies, communities to governments. There's no magic-bullet solution, no single place to act, and no one authority able to respond comprehensively.
The most effective response to this complex challenge is to address it at every level feasible&emdash;now. That means everyone not only assessing their own Y2K vulnerabilities, but also reaching out and cooperating with others with whom they are connected and interdependent.
A Blessing In Disguise?
No one can say what will really happen on 1 January 2000. It's like knowing exactly when an earthquake is going to strike, but not how big it will be. Programmers and technicians are whittling away at the problem, but we're still going to feel at least a tremor. The extent of the damage will be determined largely by how the rest of us collectively prepare and respond.
Ultimately, Y2K is a social problem that demands a response at the level of social institutions, argue John Petersen, Margaret Wheatley, and Myron Kellner-Jones in an important new paper, "The Year 2000: Social Chaos or Social Transformation?," which has strongly influenced RMI's thinking on the subject.
Y2K can expose the fragility of our highly interconnected society, the authors write, or it can galvanize us into making those connections stronger and more resilient. It's our choice.
People and organizations often come together in times of crisis, but cooperation and coordination occur more readily and smoothly if the necessary social relationships are developed before a crisis strikes. While some Y2K survivalists are building bunkers, others are pulling together with their neighbors to foresee, forestall, and prepare. A leading example of this locally oriented effort is the Cassandra Project in Longmont, Colorado. Its website (see "Resources" at the end of this article) is a useful resource and networking center for community Y2K groups.
Y2K offers an opportunity to rethink our relationships as well as our infrastructure. Many things we can do to reduce Y2K's impact also address other needs. For example, upgrading technical and information systems can make them simpler and more efficient; strengthening communities makes them better able to solve their problems. The blessing in disguise of the Y2K preparedness effort is an opportunity to move our society in a more sustainable, self-reliant, and harmonious direction.
What Can You Do About It?
First, identify areas of possible disruption that directly affect you or your organization, not only in your home and workplace, but also in the systems upon which you depend in the outside world. Second, fix or adapt critical systems before trigger dates (of which 1 January 2000 is the most important). Third, prepare to respond to possible but unpredictable disruptions in services, so that you'll have alternative arrangements in place ahead of time.
Here's a short list of ways to get started:
Individuals
- Identify your essential devices and systems with the potential for problems, and consult with dealers or manufacturers about Y2K compliance. These might include computers, medical devices, security systems, and vehicles.
- Get to know your neighbors (if you don't already)&emdash;some folks are even throwing Y2K block parties!
- Identify neighbors with special needs (elderly, handicapped) who might need extra help.
- Discuss Y2K awareness and preparedness in civic groups.
- Encourage your local government to undertake a coordinated assessment and response. (Don't assume they're already onto it: one town near us only heard of the problem last month.)
Communities and Local Government
- Create a Y2K advisory committee, with representatives of all essential government and infrastructure functions. Consider public safety and emergency preparedness, water and sanitation, social services, mass transit, public works, information technology, schools, tax and finance, and legal implications.
- Assess risk to critical systems and utilities, and work with local businesses to ensure that essential services are compliant and have contingency plans in case of disruption. These include electricity, gas, telecommunications, health care, food supply, and oil and gasoline supply.
- Hold a Y2K town meeting. Boulder, Colorado and Omaha, Nebraska have done so with positive results.
Businesses and Other Organizations
- Small businesses should identify and fix vulnerable systems, including computers, time cards, cash registers, inventory and shipping software, etc.
- Larger firms should institute similar compliance efforts as appropriate for their industry.
- Businesses should work with suppliers, vendors, bankers, insurers, and other firms with which they are interdependent to reduce risks and make contingency plans.
Act Locally
RMI does not specialize in Y2K issues. We're just trying to raise awareness of the issue, and urge you to do the same. Following the act-locally advice of the Petersen report and the Cassandra Project, RMI is helping organize meetings to encourage communities in our area to respond collectively. (We're also making our own systems Y2K compliant, of course; fortunately, our solar-powered headquarters building isn't very vulnerable to interruptions in fuel or power supplies.)
As with most society-wide problems, the real issues are not technical. By working together with those you rely upon, you can ensure that the dire scenario that started this article is the least likely outcome, and that Y2K will turn out to be little more than a passing inconvenience.
Resources -RMI
- The Year 2000 Information Center, http://www.year2000.com. Legal and technical aspects, vendors, daily world updates.
- Municipal Government Checklist, http://www.angelfire.com/mn/inforest/capersj989.html. For local government.
- Public Technology, Inc., http://www.pti.org/membership/y2k. For local government.
- President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, <www.y2k.gov>. Overview of federal government efforts, with links.
- Small Business Administration, http://www.sba.gov/y2k. Good links, checklists, and steps to take.
Resources - NREC
The Berkana Institute -- www.berkana.org
PO Box 1407
Provo, Utah 84603
801 377 2996 • 801 377 2998 fax •
info@berkana.org"The Year 2000: Social Chaos or Social Transformation" 1998 John L. Petersen, Margaret J. Wheatley & Myron Kellner-Rogers (http://www.berkana.org/frame.html?4_1_1)
Sustainable Community Roundtable
http://www.olywa.net/roundtable
2129 Bethel St. N.E. •
Olympia, WA 98506
360/754-7842
roundtable@olywa.net"Building Community &emdash;-- Y2K: An Opportunity for Sustainability"
by Lisa R. A. Smith (www.olywa.net/roundtable/y2k/index.html)Resilient Communities (http://www.resilientcommunities.org)
developed out of consideration of Y2K or the Millennium Bug. What we realized was that beyond the issues of whether or not there was a real concern, beyond the question of how to prepare for something other than "life as usual" when January 1, 2000 hits, there was the opportunity to invite people to think together about our quality of life. Robert Theobald is one of the founders of Resilient Communities. Web site sponsored by, Northwest Regional Facilitators, East 525 Mission Avenue, Spokane, WA 99202, (509) 484 6733The Cassandra Project (http://cassandraproject.org)
PO Box 8Y2K Citizen's Action Guide from the Unte Reader
Louisville, CO 80027 •
303-664-5227 -- fax: 303-664-8383
8:30 - 3:00 MST (GMT-7), Monday through ThursdayThe Objectives of the Cassandra Project:
• To raise public awareness and alert Public Sector organizations of potential Y2K related health and safety risks, and interruption of basic and essential services
• Promote community preparation activities
• Monitor federal, state, and local Y2K activities as it relates to the public welfare
• Promote contingency planning for all health, safety, and basic and essential services related systems
• Establish a clearinghouse for neighborhood and community preparedness activities
Feel free to copy and/or modify the following sample letter, (http://cassandraproject.org/locgovltr.html). It is intended for your local government (e.g. city, county, etc.).
Used with permission from Rocky Mountain Institute Fall/Winter 1998 Newsletter. For more information contact RMI at 1739 Snowmass Creek Road, Snowmass CO 81654, 970-927-3851, outreach@rmi.org, http://www.rmi.org.
Why Y2K?Decades ago, when computer memory was costly, software writers saved space by dropping the "19" from the year in computers' internal clocks and calendars. Millions of programs and chips &emdash; even many built in resent years &emdash; repeated this conventions.
On 1 January 2000 (if not before), these systems will read "00" as "1900" instead of "2000," and may malfunction in a variety of ways. Results will range from minor glitches to total system shutdowns. Worse, one system's failure may cause other linked systems to fail in ways that are impossible to predict.
Fixing Y2K is technically simple, but organizationally overwhelming. Billions of lines of software code must be screened and , where necessary, rewritten. Billions of potentially vulnerable microprocessors embedded throughout industrial society &emdash; in rail switches, vehicles, telecommunications networks, factories, power plants, pumps, building controls, etc. &emdash; must be found and checked. There aren't enough programers to identify and fix all the problems in time; one researcher estimates that more than half a million additional programmers are needed.
The federal government has yet to fix half of its critical computers. Many small businesses and communities have done little or nothing. Significant progress has been made in many areas (banking and Social Security, for example), and many researchers think that most critical systems will be ready in time. Yet it may not be enough to fix most of them, since problems in one or two links in a chain or network can bring whole systems to a halt or propagate incorrect electronic data, with rippling effects on other aspects of life.
Estimates for worldwide repair costs range from $300 billion to $600 billion, of which at least $50 billion will be spent in the United Sates. Y2K- related lawsuits may cost up to $1 trillion, and fear of litigation si hampering some companies' collaborative efforts.
-- Chris Lotspeich
Return to the Index of Synapse 46, Winter 1998/99